ROBUST ESTIMATION OF THE AREA OF ADEQUACY OF FORECASTING ONE-PARAMETER MODEL OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Content type:Original research

Published: 20-12-2021

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The object of research is

FORECASTING ONE-PARAMETER MODEL OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

The aim of research is to

identify intervals of a given quality in the range of admissible values of the internal parameter

Paper title

ROBUST ESTIMATION OF THE AREA OF ADEQUACY OF FORECASTING ONE-PARAMETER MODEL OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Keywords

exponential smoothing, inverse verification, forecasting model adequacy, robust interval estimation

Main scientific results imply the following

the method of robust estimation of the adequacy area of the forecasting one-parameter exponential smoothing model is developed, which allows one to analytically evaluate the limits of the adequacy area of the forecasting model

Scope of application

forecasting, business analytics

Limitations for practical use

The limitation of the proposed method is the length of the time series

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